“It’s full speed on to the White House” Senator Clinton confidently asserted after Tuesday night’s results. Yet the reality of those numbers is that Hillary isn’t going to be the Democratic Party nominee. It will be Senator Barack Obama and I'd bet on that being the official position by the end of May.
It’s not just the electoral numbers that will stop Senator Clinton's bid for the nomination. Her campaign has hit financial problems too, with Hillary lending it more than $6million of her own money over the last month. It’s also emerged Senator Clinton's campaign is in debt, raising doubts about the financial viability of her continuing in the race.
However, the most important numbers in this race relate to the numbers of votes and delegates. Senator Obama won another 100 delegates on Tuesday. It's now mathematically impossible for Senator Clinton to win the nomination without the superdelegates going against the American national Democratic Party vote - no matter how the remaining six contest play out. In fact, even if the disputed primaries in Michigan and Florida were added to the mix, Senator Clinton would still be around 100 delegates short of Senator Obama.
Meanwhile, Senator Obama is just 169 delegates away from winning the Democratic nomination. He’s already won more votes, more delegates, and more than twice as many states as Senator Clinton. The six remaining contests will offer up a further 217 delegates. There are 253 remaining undeclared superdelegates, taking the total to 470 delegates left to be awarded. Senator Obama needs 36% of those delegates to give him the 169 he requires to capture the Democratic nomination. Conversely, Senator Clinton needs 326 delegates to reach the Democratic nomination, which represents a startling 69% of the remaining delegates. The momentum amongst the superdelegates is also continuing to move in Senator Obama’s direction with daily announcements of new endorsements.
Today, the highly respected Rasmussen Reports announced that they are to end their daily tracking polls of the Democratic race and focus solely on the US general election between the Republican, John McCain and Senator Barack Obama. You can read their explanation here. Their daily Presidential Tracking Poll for today shows "Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%".
Senator Clinton is a formidable politician. She ran a hard-fought Presidential campaign. But, it is Senator Obama that has won through. He has built an amazing movement - surprising those that initially said Hillary had the nomination sewn up. He has attracted voters from all backgrounds and won support from Americans who'd previously viewed themselves as Republicans. It is Senator Obama that will lead the Democrats into battle this autumn. He deserves to do so and will hopefully end the Republican's grip on the White House - giving all of us an American Administration we can once again respect.